In April 2024, Congress did something unexpected. They banned TikTok. Almost as surprising, it was a bipartisan effort. The action was met on the internet with a collective: Wait, what just happened? And while people were certainly taking it seriously, over the last year there has been an open question: will they follow through? The bill granted ByteDance, the China-headquartered parent company of TikTok, nine months to sell the platform to a non-China-based company or face a nationwide ban. Lawmakers cited worries that user data could be accessed by the Chinese government and potentially used for nefarious purposes. When a Supreme Court case attempted to challenge the entire bill on First Amendment grounds, many thought it might be overturned. But it seems likely the Supreme Court will let the bill stand, making TikTok effectively banned in the U.S. as of January 19.
According to TikTok, there are 170 million monthly active users in the US 170 million monthly active users. If these users were in their own country, they would be between the populations of Russia and Brazil. While that's a lot of people, TikTok is roughly the fourth most popular social network in the US, behind Facebook, Instagram, Pinterest, and YouTube, according to data from Pew Research.
These rankings shift when you focus on younger generations. Although TikTok ranks fourth overall, Comscore’s data Comscore’s data shows it nearly ties for second place (with Instagram) among Gen Z, trailing only YouTube. Meanwhile, Facebook remains dominant among older users, and Instagram—also owned by Facebook—continues to draw a substantial share of younger audiences. Among Millennials, TikTok is still in fourth place, but they are adopting it at a higher rate than older generations—nearly matching Instagram’s usage. TikTok’s surge among Gen Z is driven by its bite-sized videos, authentic creators, and a highly engaging, algorithm-based feed. Although Instagram has adopted many of TikTok’s features, it hasn’t quite captured the same appeal.
Naturally, there’s a lot of uncertainty about what will happen to TikTok on January 19. If you already have the app on your phone, it may continue to function beyond the deadline (however, TikTok has indicated they will shut it down entirely shut it down entirely). The website and the ability to download or update the app will certainly be blocked. Even if there are workarounds, it’s safe to assume that any company still using TikTok for marketing purposes will halt those efforts if they haven’t already.
Where users pivot next seems largely a matter of age. For Gen Z and Millennials, Instagram stands out. In one survey from DISQO DISQO survey, 54% of Gen Z and 37% of Millennials named Instagram among their top five possible alternatives. Gen X and Boomers (at least those few who use TikTok) are more likely to divide their time between Facebook and YouTube, with Gen X also naming Instagram in its top five. In truth, though, no one can say for sure. Many people will likely reallocate time to the platforms they’re already on, but it’s also possible that they’ll turn to something else entirely.
Yet, if we look at the big picture, Instagram will likely gain the most. Having borrowed (or, some would say, copied) most of TikTok’s defining features, it’s already popular with the same demographic that made TikTok so successful: Gen Z and Millennials. Companies will find it relatively straightforward to repurpose many of their TikTok campaigns on Instagram with only minor tweaks. That is unless their campaign relies on influencers who may not be on Instagram. eMarketer backs up this assumption, projecting that Instagram will benefit the most from diverted ad dollars post-ban.
It’s worth remembering, though, that these are aggregate trends. Each company has unique objectives that might not align with the macro-level shifts. Brands have to think carefully about the audience they reach through TikTok and what the platform specifically provides. In recent years, the rise of social shopping has turned many platforms into major drivers of purchases. One holiday shopping study by DISQO holiday shopping study found that TikTok and Instagram were the top channels for Gen Z holiday shoppers making purchase decisions, while Millennials were driven more by Facebook, YouTube, and—yes—Instagram again. Ultimately, companies must consider their goals and the stage of the buying journey they’re trying to influence. Only then can you select the right social platform to take TikTok’s place.
The group that stands to lose the most might be TikTok influencers. We’ve seen before how creatives who bank on a single platform can be left high and dry. Websites do sometimes shut down altogether, or they fade. Even surviving platforms can change their algorithms, and that can be just as devastating for a creator who has staked a living on a particular flow of traffic traffic flow.
Still, TikTok was a special place for influencers in particular. According to a study from Influencer Marketing Hub Influencer Marketing Hub, TikTok was used for influencer marketing nearly 70% of the time. Of course, there’s significant overlap, as many brands and influencers operate on multiple social platforms. Yet TikTok was the clear favorite, and plenty of creators chose it as their one-and-only channel. It’s easy to write them off as self-absorbed performers chasing online fame, but in truth, the influencer economy has become far more sophisticated in recent years.
From TikTok drag queens teaching math to a strategist at Netflix offering career advice for black women career advice. While these videos often looked homemade and amateurish, that was largely a stylistic choice rather than a sign of poor production value. Many influencers were sharing genuinely meaningful or educational material. Some built large audiences exclusively on TikTok, so for them—and for the brands that rely on them—a ban could mean a complete reset. At worst, these accounts might vanish entirely, leaving businesses scrambling to fill a gap in their marketing approach.
The truth is, TikTok only soared to prominence during the pandemic, which isn’t as far in the past as it feels. Marketing teams quickly adapted, particularly those focusing on Gen Z, but it was never the sole digital channel for most organizations. Over the coming months, businesses will certainly scramble, but users and marketers alike tend to adapt faster than expected.
The most pressing question for brands is figuring out how TikTok fit into their broader buying and messaging funnel, and then determining which alternative can effectively replace it. There may be a period of trial and error before a clear consensus emerges. But as with any robust strategy, companies that are open to testing, learning, and pivoting in real-time will bounce back. The key is to remain nimble and focus on what matters most: the audience, the message, and the goals that drive your business forward.
Don't rule out TikTok entirely. While it would be foolish to go all-in on it right now, it's not inconceivable that it could be sold after the ban goes into effect and revived from the dead. The only thing certain in this situation is uncertainty. The second I post this, the information will likely already be outdated.
